Denis Phillips ABC Action News

Hurricane Season 2025: What to Know About Storm Flooding with ABC Action News’ Denis Phillips

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Last year, the Tampa Bay Area was hit by two major hurricanes. After narrowly dodging named storms for almost 100 years, Hurricanes Helene and Milton swept the west coast, bringing major flooding and wind.

While most Floridians are well-versed in the importance of hurricane prep, both storms proved that damage can still be detrimental, no matter how prepared you are. Hurricane season starts this month and runs through Nov. 30, and understandably, lots of people are on edge after last year’s events.

We spoke with ABC Action News Chief Meteorologist, Denis Phillips, to help us understand exactly what to be prepared for, how to make sure you and your family are ready and how he turned his famous “Rule #7” catchphrase into a way to help others in need.

Last year, the area was hit hard by flood damage. Why was it so severe?

Denis Phillips: It's been 100 years since a landfalling major hurricane hit the Bay Area. And it’s still been 100 years since a major landfalling hurricane hit the Bay Area because Helene did not make landfall anywhere near our area.

We had two different kinds of flooding. We had a surge from Helene, and we had freshwater flooding, rainfall from Milton.

All the flooding that we saw from storm surge was from a storm that was over 100 miles offshore at the time. So, there's no way I can tell people, ‘Oh boy, we got lucky,’ because a lot of folks lost so much. But it absolutely could have been a lot worse.

The flooding that we dealt with last year was really two types of flooding. We had a surge from Helene, which is just Gulf water being pushed on shore. And again, that was from a storm that was 100 miles offshore. If it had been a landfalling storm, we would have had a 12- to 14-foot surge as opposed to the 7 that we had.

Milton was the other type of storm, which fortunately for most of the Bay Area, made landfall south of us. All the surge water got pushed offshore as opposed to being pushed onshore. We got no surge with Milton. The flooding that we had was just rainwater. That's all it was.

There's not a lot you can do about it. I mean, it's the old expression, hide from the wind, run from the water. And I've been saying that for 30 years in this area.

And the reason people probably weren't prepared … people in the Bay Area have seen a lot of storms come close by, but we had never really had a major surge event. We'd always had near misses.

 

Is there anything people can do to better prepare for major flooding?

Denis Phillips: I think a lot of people were like, ‘This thing's going to stay 100 miles offshore. There's no way we're going to get as much as they're saying because it's so far offshore.’ So, they had never seen that before. And because of that, I think there were some folks who didn't take it seriously. Two or three days out, we were saying there would be a 7 or 8-foot surge.

Matter of fact, the Hurricane Center was saying there was going to be an 8-to-12-foot surge. And I kept saying over and over again, when you're watching those forecasts and you see those numbers that the Hurricane Center releases, by definition, those numbers are what they call the most reasonable worst-case scenario. And I think that's really important.

So, when people see that forecast, you have to remember that's the worst it could be. And it's my job to tell people, ‘All right, this is what the worst case scenario is going to be, but here's what I really think it's going to be.’ And those are usually two very different things. I do think there were a lot of people who lived on the coast who evacuated because they heard us say for two days prior, we were going to have a 7-foot surge. And we had a 7-foot surge.

If people didn't leave, it's because they simply didn't believe the threat really existed, because, in my opinion, they haven't seen that before. And I think now, I think it's very different.

But how do you prepare? Preparing for water is almost impossible. I mean, shutters are for wind. Yeah, there are some things you can do to tidy up an area before a storm hits with water, but the ultimate answer is that there's really not a heck of a lot we can do about water. It's going to do what it wants to do, and there's nothing we can do to stop it.

 

What would you say to the people who live inland, further away from the water, but still in a mandatory evacuation zone?

Denis Phillips: Everybody knows their property, and if they don't, they need to. And I think Helene was a good benchmark.

I think now people will have a good idea of what seven feet of water will do. And if it didn't reach their property, the next time, my guess is they'll probably stay put. And I'll be honest, most emergency management folks, more often than not, would prefer people who are inland out of flood zones to stay put, because traffic is already a nightmare trying to get out of here.

I always tell people, if you live in an area that's not going to flood, and you're talking about a storm that's less than Category 2, my suggestion is to prep the best you can, be ready for power outages that could last a week or maybe longer and ride it out. Because being stuck on the road or trying to find a place to stay is almost impossible.

Now, if you have big trees that are around your home and you're afraid that those trees could fall, that's why my family evacuates.

And I know the structures are not in the flood zone, so we don’t have to worry about water. I know that we aren’t going to have structural damage to our home from the winds, because usually those happen as a strong Category 3 and Category 4 and 5. Structural damage is not going to occur less than a Category 3 unless you're in a mobile home. But you do have to know if there are a lot of trees around, trees could fall on your home while you're there and that could cause some major issues.

 

Why do you think we finally got hit with a severe storm after dodging them for so long? 

Denis Phillips: I mean, it was our time. It was just a matter of time. We live in the Gulf, and there's no magic bubble outside of the Indian burial grounds and whatnot that protects this area. And we are going to get storms. There's just no way around it.

We've been really lucky over the last 100 years. Now, I will make the argument, and I really truly believe this is true, most storms that come in from the south, our worst-case scenario, come in from the Caribbean or the Southeastern Gulf, most of them will go north into the Panhandle. And there's a very significant reason why that's the case.

Storms want to go north. They're drawn to go north. So, a north storm will move into the Panhandle and not hit us.

What would cause a storm to veer more to the east and impact us directly? Well, that would be a cold front or a trough. How many cold fronts and troughs do we get in June, July and August? Not too many. So, a storm that comes in from the south is rarely going to have something that's going to cause it to move east. Now, in September and October, there are fronts that come down, and there are troughs that build.

The bigger question is, are storms now pushing more water into our area than they have in the past? And that is a very polarizing question. Because anytime you start talking about rising waters, you start talking about climate change, and then ultimately, you've split 50% of the audience thinking that you're wrong and 50% of the audience thinking that you're right, because it's a very political thing.

Look, I don't know what's going to happen 10, 20, 30, 50 years down the road. I do know that the waters in the last 5 to 10 years have warmed significantly. Do I know if they're going to stay that way? I don't. I do my best to get the forecast right 7 days out.

Anything past that, I leave it to somebody else. But I will tell you that storms in the last 10 years in our area have been pushing more water than storms prior to that point.

 

Does that mean we’re also going to see more storms head our way?

Denis Phillips: That does not mean there are going to be more storms. But in my opinion, every single time I watch network news, and I hear them talk about extreme weather, they always bring up climate change in the next sentence.

Extreme weather has happened forever and will continue to happen forever.

And whether people want to blame climate change for that, that's their choice. But I can tell you with absolutely no doubt in my mind that year to year, the number of hurricanes that form will fluctuate greatly. Right now, the eastern Atlantic is below average temperature-wise.

So, for folks who are saying that, ‘Oh, it's warmer and it's going to continue to warm every year,’ it's just a bunch of nonsense. It's just not true. Because the weather changes every year.

And as a matter of fact, this year the water is cooler in the tropical Atlantic than it was last year. So we are expecting there will be fewer storms developing out in the far tropical Atlantic. But what I will tell you is that in the areas that have warmed significantly, in my opinion, we're not going to have more hurricanes year in and year out.

But what we will see are stronger hurricanes. Because the areas where the waters have warmed, such as the Caribbean and the Gulf, there's just no way around it.

 

You’ve taken your famous Rule #7 catchphrase and turned it into a good cause with special themed merchandise.

Denis Phillips:  It’s something that started out from a fundraiser for my son's school, and it turned into something way, way bigger.

We donate the proceeds to a lot of local charities like Feeding Tampa Bay, Children's Miracle Network, Suncoast Animal League – a lot of local stuff. And we used to do them all ourselves and make them all ourselves.

Even up until Christmas Eve, my dining room was covered in cups and tumblers and wine glasses that I was frantically packing to try to get out for Christmas deliveries. And it finally just got too big, where we now have an Etsy page, and we have a company that does it for us.

And that coincides with our family hot chocolate fundraiser that we do the second and third Saturday of December in our neighborhood. It's just a great way to give back to the community.

I walk around, I see lots of Rule #7 t-shirts and hoodies and stuff, and it's rewarding. And it's even better to know that the proceeds go to help local charities.

Rule #7 merchandise can be purchased at rule7shop.etsy.com.

 

You can catch Denis on WFTS/ABC Action News, and be sure to follow him on Facebook @denisphillipsweatherman for up-to-date weather info and for his personal list of storm-prep essentials for hurricane season.

 

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Originally published in the June 2025 issue of Tampa Bay Parenting Magazine.